The
spot price or spot rate of a commodity, a security or
a currency is the price that is quoted for immediate (spot)
settlement (payment and delivery). Spot settlement is normally
one or two business days from trade date. This is in contrast
with the forward price established in a forward contract or
futures contract, where contract terms (price) are set now,
but delivery and payment will occur at a future date. Spot
rates are estimated via the bootstrapping method, which uses
prices of the securities currently trading in market, that
is, from the cash or coupon curve. The result is the spot
curve, which exist for each of the various classes of securities.
Spot prices and future price expectations
Depending on the item being traded, spot prices can indicate
market expectations of future price movements in different
ways. For a security or non-perishable commodity (e.g., gold),
the spot price reflects market expectations of future price
movements. In theory, the difference in spot and forward prices
should be equal to the finance charges, plus any earnings
due to the holder of the security, according to the cost of
carry model. For example, on a share the difference in price
between the spot and forward is usually accounted for almost
entirely by any dividends payable in the period minus the
interest payable on the purchase price. Any other price would
yield an arbitrage opportunity and riskless profit (see rational
pricing for the arbitrage mechanics
In contrast, a perishable commodity does not allow this arbitrage
- the cost of storage is effectively higher than the expected
future price of the commodity. As a result, spot prices will
reflect current supply and demand, not future price movements.
Spot prices can therefore be quite volatile and move independently
from forward prices. According to the unbiased forward hypothesis,
the difference between these prices will equal the expected
price change of the commodity over the period.
A simple example: even if you know tomatoes are cheap in July
and will be expensive in January, you can't buy them and take
delivery in July, since they will spoil before you can take
advantage of January's high prices. The July price will reflect
tomato supply and demand in July. The forward price for January
will reflect the market's expectations of supply and demand
in January. July tomatoes are effectively a different commodity
from January tomatoes (contrast contango and backwardation).
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